Non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions

Author:

Karin Klieber

Keyword:

Economics, Econometrics, Econometrics (econ.EM), Machine Learning (stat.ML)

journal:

date:

2023-09-08 16:00:00

Abstract

This paper introduces non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions to analyze the effects of different economic shocks. I argue that controlling for non-linearities between a large-dimensional dataset and the latent factors is particularly useful during turbulent times of the business cycle. In simulations, I show that non-linear dimension reduction techniques yield good forecasting performance, especially when data is highly volatile. In an empirical application, I identify a monetary policy as well as an uncertainty shock excluding and including observations of the COVID-19 pandemic. Those two applications suggest that the non-linear FAVAR approaches are capable of dealing with the large outliers caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and yield reliable results in both scenarios.

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