Structural Econometric Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number for Covid-19 Across U.S. States and Selected Countries

Author:

Ida Johnsson, M. Hashem Pesaran, Cynthia Fan Yang

Keyword:

Economics, Econometrics, Econometrics (econ.EM)

journal:

date:

2023-09-08 16:00:00

Abstract

This paper proposes a structural econometric approach to estimating the basic reproduction number ($\mathcal{R}_{0}$) of Covid-19. This approach identifies $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ in a panel regression model by filtering out the effects of mitigating factors on disease diffusion and is easy to implement. We apply the method to data from 48 contiguous U.S. states and a diverse set of countries. Our results reveal a notable concentration of $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ estimates with an average value of 4.5. Through a counterfactual analysis, we highlight a significant underestimation of the $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ when mitigating factors are not appropriately accounted for.

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