The allocation of FIFA World Cup slots based on the Elo method and pairwise comparisons

Author:

László Marcell Kiss, László Csató, Zsombor Szádoczki

Keyword:

Economics, General Economics, General Economics (econ.GN), Optimization and Control (math.OC)

journal:

date:

2023-10-28 16:00:00

Abstract

Qualifications for several world championships in sports are organised such that different sets of teams play in their own tournament for a predetermined number of slots. This paper provides a reasonable approach to allocate the slots based on matches between these sets of teams. We focus on the FIFA World Cup due to the existence of an official rating system and its recent expansion to 48 teams. Our proposal adapts the methodology of the FIFA World Ranking to compare the strengths of five confederations. Various allocations are presented depending on the length of the sample, the set of teams considered, as well as the frequency of rating updates. The results show that more European and South American teams should play in the FIFA World Cup. The ranking of continents by the number of deserved slots is different from the ranking implied by FIFA policy. We recommend allocating at least some FIFA World Cup slots transparently, based on historical performances, similar to the access list of the UEFA Champions League.

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