The Dictator Equation: The Distortion of Information Flow in Autocratic Regimes and Its Consequences

Vakhtang Putkaradze
Nonlinear Sciences, Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems, Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems (nlin.AO), Theoretical Economics (econ.TH)
2023-10-01 16:00:00
Humans have been arguing about the benefits of dictatorial versus democratic regimes for millennia. For example, Plato, in The Republic, favored Aristocracy,, the enlightened autocratic regime, to democracy. Modern dictators typically come to power promising quick solutions to societal problems and long-term stability}. I present a model of a dictatorship with the country's best interests in mind. The model is based on the following premises: a) the dictator forces the country to follow the desired trajectory of development only from the information from the advisors; b) the deception from the advisors cannot decrease in time; and c) the deception increases based on the difficulties the country encounters. The model shows an improvement in the short term (a few months to a year), followed by instability leading to the country's gradual deterioration over many years. I derive some universal parameters applicable to all dictators and show that advisors' deception increases in parallel with the country's decline. In contrast, the dictator thinks the government is doing a reasonable, but not perfect, job. Finally, I present a match of the model to the historical data of grain production in the Soviet Union in 1928-1940}.
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